Thursday, October 23, 2008

Binomial Coefficients and the Election

I've been following 538.com: Electoral Projections done Right very closely the last few weeks. The blog authors collect polling data from a wide range of sources, weigh it according to their sense of the poll's reliability, and produce aggregate projections. I'm not an expert, but from what I can tell the blog's authors are very good; I've learned a lot from reading the blog and I think their way of handling data makes a lot of sense. If you're interested in the art and mathematics of political polling, or if you just want to follow the build-up to the election, I highly recommend it.

Anyway, just moments ago what's wrong with this picture appeared in my feed reader from 538.com. In it, the author skewers some fishy poll results that were published earlier today. To do so, he makes reference to the binomial distribution. Proof that I wasn't lying when I said in class that binomial distributions are super useful.

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